Fathership

专栏李显扬和林学芬夫妇一直觊觎总理的地位

林学芬早就认为李显扬应该要成为国家最高掌权者,甚至暗示这个位置最终可能由他们的儿子继承。

|1 min read
专栏李显扬和林学芬夫妇一直觊觎总理的地位

新加坡政坛向来被认为是任人唯贤,而不是根据关系或血缘。 然而,李显扬最近的举动表明了一种不同的方式:源于继承权、反叛心理和想建立自家皇朝的野心。 曾经是新加坡精英圈中安静人物的李显扬,近年来逐渐扮演起一个令人意想不到的异见者角色,让人不禁对他真正的意图和心理动机产生疑问。 许多十分了解李显扬公共生活的人,注意到一股暗流,涌动着他的不忿—,甚至可能是一丝遗憾,因为他从未有机会角逐总理一职。 多年来,他的举止偶尔反映出一种压抑但难以掩饰的矛盾感,似乎对于自己所错失的机会感到不满。 熟悉他经历的资深媒体人士观察到:“李显扬的举动显示,他认为自己与他的哥哥能力相当,且对被排除在外持续不满。”若事实真的如此,那李显扬的冷板凳代表的可能不仅仅是兄弟间的竞争,更暗示着一个延续数十年,“既生瑜,何生亮”而壮志难酬的心理挣扎。 ##李显扬一直活在哥哥的阴影下 1979年从剑桥大学毕业后,李显扬加入了军队;他在1989年休假一年,从斯坦福大学获得管理科学硕士学位。李显扬在军队一共服务了15年,是一名准将,曾担任联合行动与参谋职务。1994年,他空降进入新加坡电信成为总裁。 在李光耀的回忆录《从第三世界到第一世界:新加坡故事》中,这位资深政治家赞扬了长子李显龙的成就,但在谈及幼子李显扬时似乎有所保留。 书中提及李家的九页内容中,有五页深入探讨了李显龙卓越的学术成就、在新加坡军队、政治和政府部门的迅速晋升、以及他在困难时期对稳定经济的指导。“李显龙一直对国家和政府正在发生的事情感兴趣,”李光耀作为父亲自豪地写道。他写了许多李显龙的轶事——关于李显龙学习马来语、如何养育一位白化儿子,和与癌症抗争的故事——提供了李光耀对长子生活和性格的深刻个人观察。 相比之下,对李显扬的描述则很简略。 他被简短地描述为剑桥一等生,被提到“有潜力成为公务员首长,(但)更喜欢私人企业的挑战。”当批评者指责李显扬是由于裙带关系,才被任命为新电信总裁,李光耀为此辩护,称这是基于李显扬自己的能力:“如果他是因为与我的关系而被任命的,那对他本人,和对我所建立的任人唯贤制度来说都是一场灾难。与他共事的官员和他的同僚们都清楚这一点。”“基金经理们也清楚这一点。新电信的股价并未走弱。”##李光耀或多或少夸大了李显扬的能力 然而,许多新加坡人可能发现李光耀的话与李显扬在新加坡电信的记录完全相悖。 2001年,他对澳洲电讯提出170亿新元收购时,投资者信心已经动摇,4月份股票下跌了22 %。尽管全球电信业迅猛发展,但他六年任期内新加坡电信的表现基本保持停滞——这是新加坡基金经理们争论的焦点,也与他哥哥李显龙备受赞誉的崛起形成了鲜明对比。 根据《经济学人》一[项对5069家全球公司的研究](https://www.economist.com/business/2001/11/29/marked-by-the-market),在李显扬领导下,新电信在2001年毁掉最多财富的排行榜上,竟排第18。 李显扬于2007年从新电信辞职,引发了许多猜测,传闻称他与珀斯的新电信澳都斯的员工之间的行为,导致婚姻出现问题。然而这未得到证实。 李显扬在当年辞职时的新闻发布会上表示,他想要辞职,没有特定的理由,“真的很难找到一个理由。在某个时间点,你会觉得你在某个角色上已经有一段时间了,你会想寻求改变,而12年对于任何首席执行官来说都是很长的任期。”有关李显扬的新工作的传言 曾有传言称他可能被任命为中级大使,但随后被认为不太可能,一位了解李显扬的电信分析师曾说:“他不喜欢旅行,喜欢自己熟悉的地方”。有猜测说他可能进入新加坡报业控股的董事会,或者回到军队,又或者像他那有更高成就的哥哥和父亲一样,进入政界。 但政治后来也被排除在外。李显扬当时说:“我多次说过,我不认为政治是适合我的事情。我对从事政治没有太大兴趣。”一位前新电信高管认为这一声明显得很随便,因为李显扬和林学芬早就认为李显扬命中注定应成为总理,甚至暗示这个野心最终可能由他们的儿子继承。“你可以感觉到他们之间有一种共同的信念:总理的职位对他们来说,就是他们家族应得的。”尽管声称对政治不感兴趣,[李显扬在2020年加入了新加坡前进党PSP](https://www.straitstimes.com/politics/ge2020-lee-hsien-yang-joins-tan-cheng-bocks-progress-singapore-party)。,网民们迅速指责李显扬是为了报复他哥哥而参政,因为当时两人已经因为李光耀位于欧思礼路的故居陷入长期纷争。 在2024年接受《金融时报》[的独家采访中](https://www.ft.com/content/8a3562c9-0f8f-4451-b190-a52b487d25e3),李显扬和林学芬表明他们担心李显龙会利用国家机制阻碍他们家族分支进入政治,特别是可能阻挡他们的儿子李绳武未来的政治抱负。 ##关于自大的心理、权力和继承权的思考 无论李显扬的行为是因为长年的不忿,还是基于想建立皇朝的幻想,[他的雄心似乎得到了他家人的支持](https://fathership.co/lee-hsien-yang-unhappy-that-li-shengwu-may-not-one-day-rise-to-the-position-of-prime-minister/)。他的儿子李绳武被认为是李显扬夫妻共同愿望的体现,要实现李显扬曾为自己设想的未来。 李显扬的公众形象曾是一个正经的商人,但那些了解其家庭的人,早就注意到一种复杂的挫折感、野心,和他们那种自认为被剥夺了继承权的想法。 李显扬不断演变的角色引发了许多疑问。他的故事几乎像莎士比亚的悲剧,又或是三国里的政治任务一样,未竟的雄心转化为个人反叛,现在则希望能有自己的儿子来完成这个追求。 或许最令新加坡人困惑的,是他们将领导地位视为家族继承的观念。 尽管存在少量的任人唯亲,在新加坡这样一个深深植根于任人唯贤理念的社会中,这种皇朝式的看法似乎跟不上时代,甚至接近脱离现实的幻想。 随着李显扬不断挑起事端,他的动机仍然笼罩在谜团之中,似乎是他尚未完成的个人旅程——对于继承权的反叛,抑或是为了争取继承权的反叛。

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WP do not have to worry about an opposition wipeout — they will win Aljunied & Hougang

By framing the election as an existential threat, Pritam aims to ensure WP supporters turn out in force, particularly in strongholds where voter turnout can make or break a result.

|3 min read
WP do not have to worry about an opposition wipeout — they will win Aljunied & Hougang

Workers' Party (WP) new face, Harpreet Singh, recently let slip that he doesn’t want to be “parachuted” into a “safe seat", according an interview with The Straits Times.

Harpreet's comment reveals the party’s belief in “safe seats” like Hougang and Aljunied, suggesting internal confidence in their electoral strongholds.

By admitting there are “safe seats,” Harpreet confirmed what many suspect: Hougang (WP’s turf since 1991) and Aljunied (theirs since 2011) are as close to a sure bet as it gets in Singapore’s PAP-dominated landscape.

In GE2020, WP held Hougang with 61.2% of the vote and Aljunied with 59.9%. These margins, while not overwhelming, reflect consistent voter loyalty in a political landscape dominated by the People’s Action Party (PAP), which won 83 of 93 seats in the last election.

Yet, WP leader Pritam Singh continues to warn of a potential “opposition wipeout,” as highlighted in a Channel News Asia report early this year.

Pritam's wipeout narrative

Pritam Singh’s emphasis on a potential wipeout, as articulated in his call for party unity, appears designed to galvanize supporters and prevent complacency.

By framing the election as an existential threat, Pritam aims to ensure WP supporters turn out in force, particularly in strongholds where voter turnout can make or break a result.

Yet, this narrative risks undermining the WP’s credibility.

Harpreet’s admission of safe seats suggests the party privately believes its core constituencies are secure. Publicly warning of a wipeout, then, could be perceived as disingenuous, especially by a discerning electorate.

If voters sense the WP is exaggerating risks to manipulate sentiment, trust in the party could erode—a dangerous prospect when authenticity is a currency in short supply.

It is also not helpful that Pritam himself was convicted for dishonesty.

Earlier this year, Pritam was convicted on two counts of lying under oath to a parliamentary committee. The case stemmed from his handling of former WP MP Raeesah Khan’s false statements in Parliament in 2021, where she fabricated a story about accompanying a sexual assault victim to a police station.

Playing the 'underdog' card

Pritam Singh isn’t daft. He’s a lawyer, an MP, and a guy who’s navigated Singapore’s political minefield for years. His wipeout narrative isn’t about doubting WP’s grip on Hougang or Aljunied—it’s about firing up the base.

In Singapore, where voter apathy can creep in, scaring supporters into showing up is Politics 101.

But there’s a flip side. Overplaying the underdog card risks crying wolf.

If WP’s seats are as safe as Harpreet implies, Pritam’s gloom-and-doom could erode trust.

Voters aren’t stupid—they see through spin.

And in a city where trust in institutions is high (78% of Singaporeans trust the government, per a 2023 Edelman survey), coming off as manipulative isn’t a great look.

Pritam’s banking on fear to mobilize, but he might be underestimating how savvy Singaporeans are.

With GE2025 around the corner, WP should ditch the drama and double down on policy.

Safe seats or not, elections are won by showing up for the heartlands, not by shouting “wipeout” from the rooftops.

In a nation of pragmatists, substance trumps spin every time.

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Vivian Balakrishnan's Facebook blooper also bloop-bloop in 2015

Is the Facebook glitch in the System or the Man?

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Vivian Balakrishnan's Facebook blooper also bloop-bloop in 2015

Back in 2015, during the General Election’s Cooling-Off Day — a sacred 24-hour no-campaigning zone— Vivian Balakrishnan’s Facebook page was caught posting.

The Elections Department (ELD) issued a stern reminder about the rules, and Vivian’s team chalked it up to a “technical bug” causing “recurrent auto-posting,” later confirmed by Facebook (Straits Times, 2015).

Most gave Vivian the benefit of the doubt but fast-forward a decade, and that “one-off” glitch is starting to look like a feature, not a bug.

Another "bug" bites

On March 13, 2025, Vivian’s official Facebook page “liked” a post by Calvin Cheng suggesting pro-Palestinian activists be shipped to Gaza with no return ticket — a diplomatic disaster in a single click.

The backlash was instant, with netizens and activist groups like Monday of Palestine Solidarity slamming it as tone-deaf, especially given Vivian’s parliamentary nods to Palestinian causes.

By April 2, Vivian denied liking the post, claiming “unauthorized activity” and reporting it to Meta for investigation.

One too many glitches

Vivian’s social media has gone off-script, and the “bug” excuse is wearing thin.

In 2015, we could shrug it off—social media was still a wild frontier, and bugs weren’t uncommon.

But in 2025, when Singaporeans are dodging phishing scams and securing their Singpass with 2FA, a minister’s verified account getting “hacked” or “bugged” raises red flags.

When a minister’s account keeps glitching, it erodes confidence.

If Vivian’s team can’t secure a Facebook page, how do we trust them with cybersecurity or foreign policy?

With GE2025 looming, Singaporeans want leaders who can keep up — on policy and on Facebook.

Anything less, and Vivian risks being debugged by the ballot box.

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Singapore cannot be truly neutral in the US-China conflict

Choosing neutrality would mean avoiding economic and security alignment with either side, but Singapore’s reliance on both markets forces pragmatic engagement. It's not a test of neutrality — it’s power.

|3 min read
Singapore cannot be truly neutral in the US-China conflict

Can Singapore stay neutral in an increasingly volatile geopolitical landscape?

Former Trade Minister and current Minister of Education Chan Chun Sing’s said in a CNA podcast that it's not about choosing sides—sometimes that’s decided for you—but about making Singapore so valuable that everyone wants a piece.

While Chan’s perspective highlights Singapore’s pragmatic diplomacy, it sidesteps a stark reality: neutrality, in the face of deep economic and strategic entanglements with both the US and China, is a mirage.

Neutrality promises impartiality but Singapore's reality mocks it

Singapore cannot be truly neutral in the US-China tariff war due to its deep economic, strategic, and geopolitical entanglements with both powers.

In 2023, China devoured 14% of Singapore’s exports ($83 billion) and supplied 13% of imports, while the US took 13% of exports ($76 billion) and 10% of imports.

US foreign direct investment ($234 billion) is a growth engine, while China’s Belt and Road Initiative exploits Singapore’s ports, processing 37 million TEUs in 2024.

Singapore backs US-led Indo-Pacific frameworks like the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF). Launched in 2022, IPEF’s 14-nation coalition (excluding China) aims to boost trade and supply chains.

China, excluded from IPEF, views it as a US strategy to counter its regional influence, a sentiment echoed by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who labeled it an attempt to “decouple” economically and “incite confrontation.”

In 2024, China’s state media jabbed at Singapore’s IPEF role, hinting at trade blowback but nothing came out of it as of today. However, the message was clear: neutrality is a fantasy when your biggest trading partner feels betrayed.

Walking a regional tightrope with ASEAN

Singapore’s security reliance on the US, especially for deterrence in a volatile region, tilts its strategic calculus.

Neutrality would require distancing itself from US defense cooperation, but this is unlikely given Singapore’s need for a counterbalance to regional threats, including China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea that affects ASEAN.

Singapore has no claims but supports a rules-based order, implicitly aligning with US freedom-of-navigation operations against China’s claims. This stance, articulated in Singapore’s 2024 Foreign Policy Report, draws China’s ire, undermining perceptions of neutrality.

As an ASEAN linchpin, Singapore pushes for regional unity but ASEAN’s fractures—Cambodia and Laos cozy up to China, while the Philippines and Vietnam lean US—make neutrality a diplomatic minefield.

Singapore's real play is not neutrality, but power

Choosing neutrality would mean avoiding economic and security alignment with either side, but Singapore’s reliance on both markets forces pragmatic engagement.

Favoring one risks alienating the other, yet remaining aloof could marginalize Singapore in global trade networks.

Instead, Singapore pursues strategic autonomy—hedging bets, diversifying partners, and maximizing flexibility. This approach, allows Singapore to navigate the conflict without being fully subsumed by either side.

In 2023, Singapore's S$600 billion economy grew 1.2% despite tariff headwinds, proving its adaptability.

Singapore’s edge lies not in avoiding sides but in making itself so valuable that sides compete to win its favor.

That’s not neutrality — it’s power.

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PPP's Goh Meng Seng - Trump's tariffs will not last so why worry?

Even a “short” tariff is cause for worry. It’s like saying a heart attack won’t kill you because it only lasts a minute.

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PPP's Goh Meng Seng - Trump's tariffs will not last so why worry?

Goh Meng Seng’s claim—“Trump’s tariff will not last”—seems to gloss over the issues of uncertainty.

In a Facebook post published by Goh, he said: "Trump's Tariff will not last. At most, it's between China and US but even for that, it will be much moderated."

His Facebook post, while likely aimed at calming nerves and challenging the PAP’s narrative, underestimates how even a fleeting tariff can ripple through a trade-dependent economy like Singapore’s.

The problem with "It won't last"

Goh’s assertion that Trump’s tariffs are a short-term blip sounds reassuring, but it misses the forest for the trees. Uncertainty is the real poison in global trade, and Singapore, with its open economy, is particularly allergic.

Even a temporary 10% tariff on Singapore’s exports to the U.S. spooks investors and businesses. A “short” tariff could still scare off a chip fab or logistics hub - of which Singapors economy is largely based on, costing billions in future growth.

Singapore’s role as a transshipment hub means it’s hyper-sensitive to global trade flows. A brief tariff could disrupt just-in-time manufacturing or shipping schedules, leading to delays, higher costs, and lost contracts. For example, electronics, a key export, rely on tight margins—any hiccup can cascade.

If China’s economy slows due to tariffs on U.S. goods, Singapore’s exports to China (think components, chemicals) could tank.

Even a three-month tariff war could shave 1.5% off GDP, per analyst estimates, hitting jobs and wages. That’s not a “bloop”; that’s a retrenchment notice.

Goh’s point might be that Singapore’s resilience—built on diversified trade partners and government agility—can absorb a temporary shock.

Fair enough.

We’ve got FTAs with the EU, ASEAN, and Japan, and the PAP’s track record of rolling out SME aid is solid.

But resilience doesn’t mean immunity. Uncertainty breeds hesitation—businesses pause hiring, and consumers tighten belts.

Why uncertainty is the real villain

Trade isn’t just about tariffs; it’s about confidence.

Singapore thrives on predictability—stable ports, clear trade rules, and a government that doesn’t surprise you.

SMEs, which employ 70% of Singapore’s workforce, can’t plan if tariffs might vanish or double. Should they eat the 10% cost? Pivot to new markets? Lay off staff? The indecision itself is paralyzing.

Trump’s tariffs aren’t just about Singapore. If the U.S.-China trade war escalates, global demand could slump, hitting Singapore’s exports across the board.

Does Goh Meng Seng have a point?

To give Goh some credit, he’s likely trying to counter the PAP’s “sky is falling” narrative ahead of GE2025.

The PAP’s warnings—PM Wong’s “seismic change,” SM Lee’s globalization eulogy—can feel like election scare tactics.

Goh’s post taps into that skepticism, suggesting the PAP’s hyping a temporary issue to rally voters.

And he’s not entirely wrong: Singapore’s economy has weathered shocks before (SARS-08, COVID-19), and a short tariff might not trigger Armageddon. The government’s got tools—subsidies, retraining programs, trade pivots—that could soften the blow.

But Goh’s oversimplifying.

The damage—lost contracts, spooked investors, job cuts—lingers.

And if Trump’s tariffs spark a broader trade war (say, EU retaliates or China doubles down), Singapore’s caught in the crossfire. Goh’s confidence feels like a campaign soundbite, not a strategy.

Goh’s “it won’t last” is refreshingly defiant, but it’s also naive. He’s betting on resilience without acknowledging the chaos a “bloop” can unleash.

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Fear-mongering over US tariffs necessary because S'poreans are complacent

Fear-mongering over U.S. tariffs is a PAP scare tactic, says PPP’s Goh Meng Seng. But it’s also necessary given Singaporeans’ complacency in thinking years of economic prosperity would not burst the island's utopian bubble.

|4 min read
Fear-mongering over US tariffs necessary because S'poreans are complacent

Singapore’s economy is heavily reliant on global trade, with exports accounting for a significant portion of its GDP (about 170%) — think electronics, shipping, manufacturing.

U.S. tariffs, even at 10% on Singapore’s exports, could disrupt supply chains. Growth forecasts? Down 1.5%.

If U.S.-China tariffs spike, China’s economy slows, and Singapore suffers. Fewer ships, quieter factories, jobs on the line. With living costs up 4%, families are already stretched.

PAP say "be worried"; PPP say "don't bluff"

Prime Minister Lawrence Wong has described the tariffs as marking a “seismic change” in the global order, signaling the end of rules-based globalization. Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong echoed this, noting that Singapore can no longer rely on a stable global trading system, raising the risk of a recession.

People's Power Party chief Goh Meng Seng calls PM Wong's statement "fear-mongering". They call the PAP’s warnings “scare tactics” to spook voters into sticking with the safe bet.

Crises usually send Singaporeans running to the PAP, but Goh’s betting on change. Voters are livid about housing costs and stagnant wages—why obsess over tariffs when you can’t afford a flat?

PAP has historically benefited from a “flight to safety” during crises, where voters favor stability. However, according to Goh, this strategy may be less effective now, as voters are more polarized and focused on local issues like housing affordability.

PPP: US tariffs on Singapore is "ikan bilis"

The PPP’s claim that the government is overreacting could stem from the fact that Singapore’s 10% tariff is relatively low compared to others (e.g., 26% for India). They might argue that Singapore’s diversified trade partnerships (e.g., with ASEAN, EU, and Japan) and free trade agreements could cushion the blow.

But they miss the forest for the trees. Tariffs aren’t just about U.S. trade—they disrupt global flows.

A slowdown anywhere hits our ports, factories, and wallets. Brushing it off as “ikan bilis” is reckless, like ignoring a leak in a ship.

The PPP’s skepticism taps voter frustration, but it underestimates a real economic storm.

Additionally, some opposition figures may believe the government’s messaging exaggerates immediate risks to rally voters, when the full economic impact might take time to materialize.

COVID-19 measures were also an overreaction but look at where it got Singapore

PM Wong referenced the COVID-19 response, where early government action was criticized as overreach but later proved necessary. This suggests a pattern: proactive warnings about external risks (like tariffs) aim to prepare Singaporeans for tough times, even if the full impact isn’t immediate.

According to Goh, he said to "let the big boys (US and China) hash it out" - reiterating that the tariffs are temporary and for Singapore to focus on domestic issues.

Goh rightly highlights domestic pain—housing and jobs are urgent—but dismissing tariffs ignores how global shocks amplify local struggles.

Some analysts argue that Singapore’s agile economy and government interventions (e.g., support for SMEs) could mitigate damage. The PPP might be banking on this resilience -- an irony seeing that PAP's policies created this resilience - to argue that panic is premature.

Election noise means opinions from political parties need to be taken with a grain of salt

With the General Election (GE2025) set for May 3, opposition parties are differentiating themselves by challenging the PAP’s narrative. Calling out “fear-mongering” appeals to voters frustrated with the PAP’s dominance. The PPP’s critique is partly electoral posturing.

Conversely, the PAP’s emphasis on unity and preparedness could be seen as leveraging the crisis to bolster its campaign.

However, dismissing the tariff threat as “fear-mongering” overlooks the broader economic stakes that affect the livelihood of all Singaporeans, and is nothing short of myopic.