Vice President Kamala Harris and ex-president Donald Trump took to the stage for their first debate of the 2024 campaign in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. With America grappling with high inflation, racial strife, and international tensions, the debate was a critical moment for both candidates. Amidst the heated exchanges, Harris made a pointed appeal to Polish-Americans, referencing a historical gaffe from a 1976 debate that could sway the election in her favour.
Background
The U.S. presidential election hinges on the electoral college, not the popular vote. This system means that key swing states like Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes, can determine the outcome. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won nearly 3 million more votes than Donald Trump but lost the election due to the electoral college. Pennsylvania’s status as a swing state makes it a crucial battleground, and its voters could once again decide the nation’s future.
The debate (2024)
During the debate, Trump was asked about his secret plan to end the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 24 hours. He criticised Europe for not contributing as much aid as the U.S. and labelled Biden and Harris as “weak” negotiators. Harris responded by saying that if Trump had been president when Putin invaded, “Putin would be sitting in Kiev right now,” with ambitions extending to the rest of Europe, “starting with Poland.”
Harris then directly addressed Polish-Americans in Pennsylvania, questioning how quickly Trump would capitulate to Putin. This appeal to Polish-Americans was reminiscent of a significant moment in a 1976 presidential debate.
The debate (1976)
In 1976, President Gerald Ford and Governor Jimmy Carter debated in San Francisco. Ford, who had become president after Nixon’s resignation, faced Carter, a political outsider. During the debate, Ford made a critical error by claiming, “There is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe,” despite the reality of Soviet influence. This gaffe alienated many Eastern European immigrants and may have contributed to Ford’s narrow loss to Carter.
2024 redux
Harris’s comment about Polish-Americans could have a similar impact in 2024. The debate was widely covered in Poland, but in Pennsylvania, support for the candidates remained evenly split. Biden won Pennsylvania in 2020 by just over 80,000 votes, a margin that could be influenced by the state’s significant Polish-American population.
If Harris’s appeal sways enough Polish-American voters to tip Pennsylvania in her favour, it could determine the entire election. In such a scenario, Trump could find himself in Gerald Ford’s position—a one-term Republican president.
Historical echoes
The 1976 debate gaffe by Ford and its potential impact on the election serves as a cautionary tale. While some sources argue that Ford’s poll numbers recovered, the close result in swing states like Ohio suggests that debate performances can indeed sway elections. Harris’s strategic reference to Polish-Americans in Pennsylvania could be a decisive factor in the 2024 election, echoing the historical significance of Ford’s misstep.
